Polls Split on California Marijuana Legalization Initiative

[Ganjarden]

Two California public opinion polls, one released Friday and one released Monday, are at odds as to whether the Tax and Regulate Cannabis marijuana legalization initiative (now known officially as Proposition 19) has the support of Golden State voters. The confused polling results suggest a race that will be very tight.

On Friday, the Field Poll reported that only 44% supported the initiative, while 48% opposed it and 8% were undecided. But that was followed on Monday by a SurveyUSA poll that found 50% supported the initiative, 40% opposed it, and 11% were undecided. (The numbers don't add up because of rounding.)

The sampling margin of error for the SurveyUSA today poll was +/- 4%, while the margin of error for the Field poll was +/- 3.2% overall and +/- 5.5% for its population subsamples. Again, given the small gap between support and opposition and the margin for error, the polling suggests a very tight race indeed.

Proposition 19 would legalize the possession of up to an ounce of marijuana and the growing of a garden of 25 square feet by adults anywhere in California. It would also provide counties and municipalities with the local option to allow, tax, and regulate marijuana sales and production. If it wins in November, it would be the first time the voters of any state have voted to legalize marijuana.

The SurveyUSA poll showed majority support for the initiative among moderates (53%), liberals (69%), college graduates (54%), and people who make less than $40,000 a year (54%) or more than $80,000 a year (53%). The Field poll showed majority support among Democrats (53%), young voters (52%), young whites (53%), and middle aged whites (51%).

There are discrepancies between the two polls, especially when it comes to support by race and by geographic region. The SurveyUSA poll found majority support for the initiative among whites (50%), blacks (52%), and Asians (53%), with only Hispanics (46%) failing to get on board. But the Field poll was significantly lower, especially among non-whites. It showed majority support among no ethnic groups, with support at 48% for whites, 40% for blacks, 33% for Asians, and 36% among Hispanics.

Similarly, the Field poll shows majority support only in the San Francisco Bay area (53%), while the SurveyUSA poll shows majority support there (53%) and in the Greater Los Angeles area (54%). The Field poll had support for the initiative at only 46% in Los Angeles County, 46% in the Inland Empire, and 39% in San Diego County.

There has been some speculation that differences in polling techniques could account for the differences. The SurveyUSA poll is an automatic poll conducted by telephone with automated questions and response prompts, while the Field poll is conducted by a live interviewer. It has been suggested that some respondents may be embarrassed to tell a live interviewer they support legalization.

We are less than four months out now. This is going to get very interesting.

summary: Is the California tax and regulate marijuana legalization initiative winning or losing? Right now, it looks like it depends on which pollster you ask. In any case, this is looking like a very tight race.


NewsHawk: Ganjarden: 420 MAGAZINE
Source: StoptheDrugWar.org
Contact: StoptheDrugWar.org
Copyright: 2010 StoptheDrugWar.org
Website: Polls Split on California Marijuana Legalization Initiative

 

[GanjaAL2]

I distinctly remember saying something about this prop 19 being all about the money... well here you go:

Oakland approves massive grows; 275k per permit ... Rich Lee Wins One
The Oakland City Council isn't waiting for November to begin jumbling the legal rules. The Council's Public Safety Committee approved licensing wholesale pot growing Tuesday, 3-to-1.

KALW News reporter Ali Winston reports from that meeting that sponsors say the main reason for the proposal isn't revenue, it's safety (as their name implies): residential electrical fires more than doubled in the city in the past three years, and officials think there's a good connection between that increase and unregulated pot "grow houses."

That said, the committee proposes that applicants pay fees of over $275,000 per operation.

Approved by the committee and full City Council, four large growers would be permitted in the first year.

One grower said he embraced regulation but argued that the plan would force medium- and small-scale cultivators to close down, move, or "go back underground into the dark ages."

The ordinance doesn't yet set a limit on the size of the large cultivators

The plan also would permit Oakland's four licensed dispensaries to sell to retailers across California.

Last month rich lee purchased a 20 acre plot to build his new growing facilities ...

Now remember.... he will be protected by oakland... and everyone else will have to face the feds alone.

 

[MedicalNeed]

At that size they had better use pollen traps for incoming air .

And if big tobacco jumps in the mix, as dustpans of pollen will be the revenge of the lil guys being forced out. I am just guessing? But at that size the loss would be considerable, and would make a shortage of meds possibly forcing the lowering of Licensing cost?

 

[GanjaAL2]

No one would believe me that there was something a miss. It turns out it was never about legalization but the protection of peoples business plans.

Again... Oakland will protect him tooth and nail from the feds as that is their meal ticket.

Wow.... a 20 acre grow facility. He will be set for life!

 

[GanjaAL2]

At that size they had better use pollen traps for incoming air .

And if big tobacco jumps in the mix, as dustpans of pollen will be the revenge of the lil guys being forced out. I am just guessing? But at that size the loss would be considerable, and would make a shortage of meds possibly forcing the lowering of Licensing cost?

You can bet your ass he it will be a state of the art facility. He will have no worries about pollen. Armed guards, camara's ect. state procecution for those who dare try something like that.

Why grow your own when you can get it from this guy. Also... it will not further legalization as who will need to as he will be the only one with money to do anything about it.

 

[markscastle]

Like the way they don`t name the poll that isn`t in there favor but name the poll that is! It`s called spin and isn`t good reporting !

 

[greengo840]

Like the way they don`t name the poll that isn`t in there favor but name the poll that is! It`s called spin and isn`t good reporting !

Read closer. Try again.

"On Friday, the Field Poll reported that only 44% supported the initiative, while 48% opposed it and 8% were undecided. But that was followed on Monday by a SurveyUSA poll that found 50% supported the initiative, 40% opposed it, and 11% were undecided."