Final Field Poll Has Prop 19 Down by Seven Points

[Jim Finnel]

It's starting to look like 2010 will not be the year California legalizes marijuana. Proposition 19, the tax and regulate marijuana legalization initiative is trailing 42% to 49% in the last Field poll of the campaign season. A Field poll last month had the initiative winning by the same margin.

The Field poll results are in line with other recent polls. The Talking Points Memo Poll Tracker, which does not include the latest Field poll, has Prop 19 losing 49.6% to 43.4%. Only two polls out of 10 in the past month show the measure winning.

It appears support for Prop 19 peaked in September, before any serious opposition emerged. The measure polled ahead in all five polls that month.

But the election isn't over until everyone votes on Tuesday, and the Yes on 19 campaign is in full-blown get out the vote mode until the polls close. Rallies, newspaper and electronic media ads, and phone banking will continue up until the last minute.

Still, the Field poll suggests a victory on Tuesday will be hard to come by. Only slim majorities of Democrats (51%) and independents (57%) favor the initiative, while nearly two-thirds (65%) of Republicans oppose it. Prop 19 is only polling at 49% in the San Francisco Bay area and 50% in the rest of northern California, and is trailing in Los Angeles County (38%), the Central Valley (39%), and the rest of southern California (41%).

The measure was trailing among men, 44% to 48%, and by a larger margin among women, 40% to 50%. It trailed in all age groups except voters under age 40, who favored by a margin of 54% to 38%.

Prop 19 didn't have majority support among any ethnic group in the latest Field poll. It fared best with whites (46%), followed by blacks (45%) and Hispanics (35%). But it got creamed by Asian ethnic voters. Only 22% of Chinese-Americans supported, only 19% of Korean-Americans supported it, and only 10% of Vietnamese-Americans supported it.

Can a surge of "unlikely voters" prove the polls wrong? Stay tuned.

News Hawk: User: 420 MAGAZINE
Source: StoptheDrugWar.org
Author: Phillip Smith
Copyright: 2008 StoptheDrugWar.org
Contact: drcnet@drcnet.org
Website: Final Field Poll Has Prop 19 Down by Seven Points | StoptheDrugWar.org

 

[freetheweed]

I have been reading a lot about who really opposes it. if it is the big time dealers opposing it, then get ready if prop 19 doesn't pass, I expect to see a huge increase in price, why? because they can and they know it. they may also know that their time is up because legalization is like a huge sleeping dragon that was just woken.
I sure hope these "Sleeper" potheads vote.

 

[Manvir2489]

while nearly two-thirds (65%) of Republicans oppose it.

Not surprising, Party of small-government my ass.

Hopefully Wikipedia is right and some of the polls are skewed.

California Proposition 19 (2010) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[GanjaAL2]

Not surprising, Party of small-government my ass.

Hopefully Wikipedia is right and some of the polls are skewed.

California Proposition 19 (2010) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yes... no fiscal irresponsible prohibitionist taxing, regulating and banning as they see fit. It needs to be rescheduled and elected officials held accountable for not upholding state law and trying to enforce federal law... when this happens... the weed will finally be freed and the people will be in control once again.

 

[goblinmarket]

This is incredibly disappointing

 

[wannabgreen]

Everyone in cali please put the bong down get off the couch and go vote ---your laws may be alright with you already but in my state i would go to jail if found in possesion of a mere seed or stem--we need you guys to get out and vote for prop 19 in order for some of the rest of the country can be at ease with their states mj laws in a few years

 

[Zardoz]

We were defeated by members of our own community who didn't vote for 19. If they would have voted with us, it would have passed. As it is, we might even lose MMJ because Steve Cooley might end up as AG. I hope not.

I will not give my business to ANYBODY in the cannabis community who voted no on 19.