Katelyn Baker
Well-Known Member
A new analysis shows November's statewide ballot measure legalizing recreational marijuana got strong support across the county that wasn't reliant on low-frequency voters casting ballots because of the presidential race.
The measure, Proposition 64, got majority support in 16 of the county's 18 cities and was within 20 votes of 50 percent in each of the other two, Poway and National City.
Within the city of San Diego, the measure fell short of majority support in only seven of 117 neighborhoods and got more than 50 percent of the vote in all nine City Council districts.
Support was particularly strong in the city's beach communities, the neighborhoods surrounding Balboa Park and areas near San Diego State University and UC San Diego.
For example, the two communities where the measure got the highest support were Ocean Beach at 81 percent and Hillcrest at 80.5 percent. And they were followed by four more at 79 percent: Golden Hill, University Heights, North Park and Normal Heights.
The measure got majority support countywide in every age group except those 65 or older, and the only ethnic groups that didn't show strong support were Asians and Latinos, according to the analysis commissioned by the United Medical Marijuana Coalition, an organization of legal San Diego marijuana dispensaries.
Support for the measure was a bit over 57 percent countywide, just short of the 57.1 percent statewide approval rate.
But support was much higher than that in San Diego, where nearly 62 percent voted in favor, and several coastal cities.
Support was 65.2 percent in Encinitas, 64.9 percent in Del Mar, 62 percent in Imperial Beach and 61.2 percent in Solana Beach.
Inland cities supported the measure less aggressively, including Santee and Escondido at just over 52 percent and El Cajon at 51.6 percent.
The inland/coastal divide was also apparent within San Diego, with four of the seven neighborhoods where voters rejected the measure located east of Interstate 15: Rancho Bernardo, Miramar Ranch North, Rancho Encantada and San Pasqual.
The other neighborhoods rejecting the measure are in southeastern San Diego, where there are large numbers of Latino voters: Otay Mesa, Alta Vista and Bay Terraces.
The presence of Latinos also played a role in tepid support in Chula Vista, where 51 percent approved it, and National City, one of only two cities where the measure fell short of 50 percent.
The other city where the measure didn't get majority support, Poway, is east of I-15 and bordered by some of the city of San Diego communities that supported the measure at less than 50 percent.
Vince Vasquez, a local political consultant who completed the analysis, said the widespread support shows a significant shift in public opinion in recent years about whether marijuana should be legalized.
"Voters overwhelmingly supported Prop. 64," said Vasquez. "It's a shift in public opinion that didn't come about because of any sort of campaign spending. The 'yes' side didn't have to move the needle that way."
Vasquez said the results could persuade elected officials in many communities that they can approve dispensaries without fear of political backlash.
"People might say this is a general election phenomenon fueled by voter groups who only show up every four years, but that's not true," said Vasquez, who works as a policy and elections analyst at National University. "That's certainly important to whatever direction the city of San Diego and other municipalities take as they begin to implement marijuana regulations."
San Diego, the only city in the county to allow medical marijuana dispensaries since state voters made medical marijuana legal in 1996, is scheduled to consider new legislation on Jan. 31 allowing those dispensaries to begin selling recreational marijuana when state regulations are finalized later this year.
A factor in that decision might be that the survey found that whether a voter supported Proposition 64 was not affected by whether that voter lives near one of the 15 medical marijuana dispensaries approved by San Diego.
The United Medical Marijuana Coalition, the organization that paid for the new analysis, said the goal was to inform their business decisions and local policy debates.
"Public attitudes on cannabis are shifting fast, and UMMC wanted to ensure both that our members' business decisions are in step with the communities we serve and that our policy discussions were based on a thorough understanding of voter sentiment on adult use of cannabis in San Diego," the organization said in a statement.
The analysis might not play the same role in informing officials of the county government, the only other local agency to allow medical marijuana dispensaries.
In the county''s unincorporated areas, Proposition 64 got support from just less than 50 percent of voters. The measure, however, fell less than 100 votes short of majority approval among the nearly 210,000 residents casting ballots in unincorporated areas.
Scott Chipman, leader of anti-marijuana group San Diegans for Safe Neighborhoods, said the UMMC and legalization advocates are mistaken in their conclusions.
He said strong support for the measure both locally and statewide was primarily due to a misleading ballot argument written by state officials.
"I think it means the ballot argument was improperly written and was totally biased," Chipman said. "It only counted the revenue but didn't count any of the costs: crime, social costs and health care."
He said the strong support also shows California voters are unaware of problems recreational marijuana has caused in other states, such as a rise in the number of babies born in Colorado testing positive for THC, the psychoactive ingredient in marijuana.
"It's evidence that the harms of legalizing marijuana that have shown up in states like Colorado never made it to the public eye," Chipman said.
On voters living near approved dispensaries not being less likely to support Proposition 64, Chipman noted that most dispensaries are relatively far away from housing because of city regulations requiring them to open in industrial zones.
Vasquez, the elections analyst, said he was surprised by the relative lack of support for the state ballot measure among Asians and, particularly, Latinos.
He said the measure received much stronger support from Democrats and independent voters than Republicans, making it likely that Latinos, who rarely register as Republicans, would have supported it strongly.
But Vasquez said that has not always held true, particularly on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage.
"I can only assume it's cultural attitudes about marijuana overall," he said.
On strong support near SDSU and UCSD, Vasquez said that's likely a convergence of several factors: Strong support from young people, from those who are more educated and from those living in communities with higher turnover rates among residents.
News Moderator: Katelyn Baker 420 MAGAZINE ®
Full Article: Analysis Shows Widespread Local Support For Marijuana Ballot Measure
Author: David Garrick
Contact: 619-299-4141
Photo Credit: Charlie Neuman
Website: The San Diego Tribune
The measure, Proposition 64, got majority support in 16 of the county's 18 cities and was within 20 votes of 50 percent in each of the other two, Poway and National City.
Within the city of San Diego, the measure fell short of majority support in only seven of 117 neighborhoods and got more than 50 percent of the vote in all nine City Council districts.
Support was particularly strong in the city's beach communities, the neighborhoods surrounding Balboa Park and areas near San Diego State University and UC San Diego.
For example, the two communities where the measure got the highest support were Ocean Beach at 81 percent and Hillcrest at 80.5 percent. And they were followed by four more at 79 percent: Golden Hill, University Heights, North Park and Normal Heights.
The measure got majority support countywide in every age group except those 65 or older, and the only ethnic groups that didn't show strong support were Asians and Latinos, according to the analysis commissioned by the United Medical Marijuana Coalition, an organization of legal San Diego marijuana dispensaries.
Support for the measure was a bit over 57 percent countywide, just short of the 57.1 percent statewide approval rate.
But support was much higher than that in San Diego, where nearly 62 percent voted in favor, and several coastal cities.
Support was 65.2 percent in Encinitas, 64.9 percent in Del Mar, 62 percent in Imperial Beach and 61.2 percent in Solana Beach.
Inland cities supported the measure less aggressively, including Santee and Escondido at just over 52 percent and El Cajon at 51.6 percent.
The inland/coastal divide was also apparent within San Diego, with four of the seven neighborhoods where voters rejected the measure located east of Interstate 15: Rancho Bernardo, Miramar Ranch North, Rancho Encantada and San Pasqual.
The other neighborhoods rejecting the measure are in southeastern San Diego, where there are large numbers of Latino voters: Otay Mesa, Alta Vista and Bay Terraces.
The presence of Latinos also played a role in tepid support in Chula Vista, where 51 percent approved it, and National City, one of only two cities where the measure fell short of 50 percent.
The other city where the measure didn't get majority support, Poway, is east of I-15 and bordered by some of the city of San Diego communities that supported the measure at less than 50 percent.
Vince Vasquez, a local political consultant who completed the analysis, said the widespread support shows a significant shift in public opinion in recent years about whether marijuana should be legalized.
"Voters overwhelmingly supported Prop. 64," said Vasquez. "It's a shift in public opinion that didn't come about because of any sort of campaign spending. The 'yes' side didn't have to move the needle that way."
Vasquez said the results could persuade elected officials in many communities that they can approve dispensaries without fear of political backlash.
"People might say this is a general election phenomenon fueled by voter groups who only show up every four years, but that's not true," said Vasquez, who works as a policy and elections analyst at National University. "That's certainly important to whatever direction the city of San Diego and other municipalities take as they begin to implement marijuana regulations."
San Diego, the only city in the county to allow medical marijuana dispensaries since state voters made medical marijuana legal in 1996, is scheduled to consider new legislation on Jan. 31 allowing those dispensaries to begin selling recreational marijuana when state regulations are finalized later this year.
A factor in that decision might be that the survey found that whether a voter supported Proposition 64 was not affected by whether that voter lives near one of the 15 medical marijuana dispensaries approved by San Diego.
The United Medical Marijuana Coalition, the organization that paid for the new analysis, said the goal was to inform their business decisions and local policy debates.
"Public attitudes on cannabis are shifting fast, and UMMC wanted to ensure both that our members' business decisions are in step with the communities we serve and that our policy discussions were based on a thorough understanding of voter sentiment on adult use of cannabis in San Diego," the organization said in a statement.
The analysis might not play the same role in informing officials of the county government, the only other local agency to allow medical marijuana dispensaries.
In the county''s unincorporated areas, Proposition 64 got support from just less than 50 percent of voters. The measure, however, fell less than 100 votes short of majority approval among the nearly 210,000 residents casting ballots in unincorporated areas.
Scott Chipman, leader of anti-marijuana group San Diegans for Safe Neighborhoods, said the UMMC and legalization advocates are mistaken in their conclusions.
He said strong support for the measure both locally and statewide was primarily due to a misleading ballot argument written by state officials.
"I think it means the ballot argument was improperly written and was totally biased," Chipman said. "It only counted the revenue but didn't count any of the costs: crime, social costs and health care."
He said the strong support also shows California voters are unaware of problems recreational marijuana has caused in other states, such as a rise in the number of babies born in Colorado testing positive for THC, the psychoactive ingredient in marijuana.
"It's evidence that the harms of legalizing marijuana that have shown up in states like Colorado never made it to the public eye," Chipman said.
On voters living near approved dispensaries not being less likely to support Proposition 64, Chipman noted that most dispensaries are relatively far away from housing because of city regulations requiring them to open in industrial zones.
Vasquez, the elections analyst, said he was surprised by the relative lack of support for the state ballot measure among Asians and, particularly, Latinos.
He said the measure received much stronger support from Democrats and independent voters than Republicans, making it likely that Latinos, who rarely register as Republicans, would have supported it strongly.
But Vasquez said that has not always held true, particularly on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage.
"I can only assume it's cultural attitudes about marijuana overall," he said.
On strong support near SDSU and UCSD, Vasquez said that's likely a convergence of several factors: Strong support from young people, from those who are more educated and from those living in communities with higher turnover rates among residents.
News Moderator: Katelyn Baker 420 MAGAZINE ®
Full Article: Analysis Shows Widespread Local Support For Marijuana Ballot Measure
Author: David Garrick
Contact: 619-299-4141
Photo Credit: Charlie Neuman
Website: The San Diego Tribune
